NDA gets 18.27% vote share in T.N., its best comes in southern districts

In the runup to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had set a target to garner 25% votes in Tamil Nadu. Though it failed to achieve the target, besides drawing a blank, the alliance got a considerable vote share of 18.27% without the support of Dravidian majors.

For this analysis, the 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu have been grouped into five zones. The NDA’s best performance was recorded in Southern Tamil Nadu, where it recorded an average vote share of nearly 22.27%. In its traditional stronghold Kanniyakumari, former Union Minister Pon. Radhakrishnan got 35.6% votes, the highest by an NDA candidate in the State.

In Tirunelveli and Ramanathapuram, the alliance managed to poll more than 30% as both Nainar Nagenthran and O. Panneerselvam were known faces. Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam general secretary T.T.V. Dhinakaran polled 25.65% votes. Surprisingly in Madurai, the BJP pushed the AIADMK to third by getting 22.38% votes.

However, the NDA’s performance was relatively poor in Virudhunagar (15.66%) where it fielded Radikaa Sarathkumar, a well-known actor. Its alliance partners, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Tamil Manila Congress (Moopanar) got less than 15% votes in Dindigul and Thoothukudi respectively.

In Chennai, the NDA performed considerably well compared to other regions by securing an average of 20.72% of votes. In Chennai South, the BJP candidate Tamilisai Soundararajan polled nearly 2.9 lakh votes. She finished second, like Vinoj.P. Selvam of the BJP in Chennai Central who got 23.16% votes. However, the NDA finished third in Chennai North.

In Northern Tamil Nadu, where the PMK enjoys a considerable vote bank, the performance of NDA was not at its best. By roping in PMK, the BJP was hoping to wrestle some seats in Northern Tamil Nadu. However, it settled at an average of 16.79% in 10 constituencies. The numbers show that the mutual transfer of votes among the alliance partners does not seem to have happened. The alliance finished fourth in Kallakurichi with just 5.71% votes. It polled around 15% to 20% in other constituencies in Northern Tamil Nadu, leaving aside the Vellore seat, where A.C. Shanmugham, a known face, got 31.25% votes.

Apart from Chennai and Southern Tamil Nadu, the NDA’s performance was considerable in a few seats in Western Tamil Nadu. BJP State president K. Annamalai and PMK’s Sowmiya Anbumani polled more than 30% votes in Coimbatore and Dharmapuri. In both seats, to a large extent, their vote base was limited to their party strength but not their alliance partners. In Western Tamil Nadu, the average vote share of the NDA was 18.77%. Notably, in Salem, Namakkal and Erode, the NDA received less than 10% votes, a clear indication of a lack of vote transfer among the alliance partners.

The NDA performance was at its low in Central Tamil Nadu, which remains a stronghold of Dravidian parties, particularly the DMK. The average vote share of NDA in the seven seats was only 12.82%. It finished fourth in Nagapattinam and third in all the other seats in Central Tamil Nadu.