DMK-led front partially regains its lost vote base this Lok Sabha election

The DMK-led front has regained a portion of the vote base that it lost three years ago in the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly election, a perusal of the data on the performance of various political formations in the State over the last five years reveals.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the DMK-led combine emerged victorious in all the 39 Lok Sabha constituencies in the State. Of the 47% of the votes that the front polled, its principal constituent, DMK, secured 27%, registering a 1.6 percentage point increase from the votes it secured in 2021 (45.4%). The factors responsible for this improved performance include the cohesiveness of the coalition, the impact of the welfare schemes launched by the ruling DMK, and the addition of the Makkal Needhi Maiam to the front. However, the coalition’s performance five years ago remains its best in the recent years. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, its vote share was approximately 53%, with the DMK securing 33.53%. Another comforting factor for the DMK is that its traditional adversary, AIADMK, has been going through a lean patch. Two years ago, its vote share was 33.3%. Now, it is down to 20%, which is marginally higher than what it garnered in the 2019 election, which it faced along with the PMK, the BJP, the DMDK, and the TMC (Moopanar). This time, however, the DMDK was its only ally.

The BJP, which led an alliance of its own this time, managed to secure a double-digit vote share (about 11%). In total, along with its partners, the figure was a little over 18%. In the previous two elections (2021 and 2019), it was an ally of the AIADMK.

The data also revealed that 12 winners of the DMK-led front had secured a vote share of 50% and more. Of them, eight were of the DMK; two belonged to the Congress; and one each to the CPI(M) and the MDMK.

However, in 2019, there were 27 winners who secured 50% and more. This time, in 25 constituencies, the vote share of the winners ranged between 40% and 49% and in the remaining two, it was less than 40%. The AIADMK-led coalition’s vote share exceeded 40% in only one constituency, Kallakurichi. The figure was in the range of 30% to 39% in seven; 20%-29% in 16; and less than 20% in 15. As for the BJP-led front, the vote share ranged from 30% to 39% in six constituencies; 20%-29% in seven, and less than 20% in all the other constituencies.